(My Sportsbook) - After sweeping the defending World Series champion
Arizona Diamondbacks in their best-of-five National League Division Series, the rested
St. Louis Cardinals will tangle with the
San Francisco Giants for the right to represent the National League in the 2002 Fall Classic.
San Francisco will be competing in the National League Championship Series for the first time since 1989, when it defeated the Chicago Cubs to advance to the World Series. On Monday, the Giants defeated the Atlanta Braves by a 3-1 score in the fifth and deciding game of their Division Series to become the fourth team to reach the Championship Series.
As an introduction to this NLCS matchup, let's take a look at the keys to winning the series for both clubs.
San Francisco Giants
1 - Barry Bonds. As long as Bonds is on center stage, he will be the focal point for everything, good and bad, that happens to the Giants. We all know his postseason performance in the past has not matched his immense talent, but the slugging outfielder came up big when it counted in the Division Series.
After lacing a single in the second inning, the front-runner for the NL MVP Award scored San Francisco's first run. Two innings later, Bonds crushed a 3-2 pitch from Kevin Millwood over the left-center field fence to give his squad a two-run lead. As it turns out, Bonds' round-tripper -- his third of the series -- proved to be the winning run.
"I prayed Barry would have a great series, and a great series he did," stated Giants skipper Dusty Baker. "He hit the ball a lot harder than the numbers indicate. I'm very glad for him."
Bonds ended the five-game set with a .294 batting average (5-for-17), three home runs, four RBI and five runs scored. He also walked four times for an on- base percentage of .404. Entering the series, the All-Star leftfielder owned a paltry .196 batting average with one homer and six RBI in 27 playoff games.
Now that the four-time MVP has won a postseason series for the first time in his career, spanning six tries, I fully expect him to have a big NLCS against the Cardinals. The monkey is off his back and the future Hall of Famer should be able to relax and have fun.
Of course, a lot of his performance will come down to what the likes of Kenny Lofton, Rich Aurilia, Jeff Kent, Benito Santiago and Reggie Sanders accomplish around him. Without men on base, Bonds will not see anything to hit.
It starts at the top with Lofton, who batted .350 and scored five runs versus Atlanta.
2 - Kirk Rueter. The Giants will go with Rueter in Game 1, despite his poor outing in the second game of the NLDS. At Turner Field, with the Giants ahead in the series, 1-0, Rueter was knocked around for seven runs -- six earned -- on seven hits over three innings as San Francisco suffered a 7-3 setback. He walked two and struck out one, while giving up a pair of home runs.
Rueter's Game 1 start is this series is important from a few angles. First of all, the Cards are well-rested while the Giants are coming off a hard-fought, five-game series against the Braves. A strong performance by Rueter will save the bullpen and give the soft-tossing lefthander some confidence.
Secondly, St. Louis is riding the emotion of sweeping the defending champion Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cardinals believe they cannot be beaten and that will continue if they get to Rueter early and jump out to a lead in the series.
"The people in this clubhouse -- the manager, players, coaches and training staff -- believe that we're going to do it," said Cards veteran righthander Andy Benes.
Finally, Rueter experienced some success earlier this season versus St. Louis, tossing 7 1/3 innings and permitting two runs -- both unearned -- on six hits. For his career, he is an impressive 9-3 against the Cardinals with a 2.72 ERA. The 31-year-old hurler is also 60-30 lifetime on the road, including his loss at Turner Field in the Division Series.
A loss in Game 1 would not be devastating, especially considering the Giants will be facing St. Louis ace Matt Morris, but a win against the Cardinals' top pitcher would go a long way and might propel Baker's crew to the World Series. The outcome of Wednesday's game will be, in large part, determined by Rueter's performance.
3 - Benito Santiago. If the Cards pitch around Bonds, and you know they will at every opportunity, the guys behind the 38-year-old outfielder will have to make them pay.
While Santiago batted only .238 in the Division Series, he did knock in five runs. In Game 1 of the NLDS, with Jeff Kent on second base and two outs, the Braves elected to walk Bonds intentionally and take their chances against the 37-year-old Santiago. The veteran catcher came through, ripping a double to right-center field that plated both runners.
Santiago needs to make the most of his opportunities in this series for the Giants to be successful. Having already caught over 130 games on the year, it will be interesting to see if Santiago can continue to defy Father Time and come up with big hits in the clutch.
St. Louis Cardinals
1 - Overcome the loss of third baseman Scott Rolen. The addition of Rolen from the Philadelphia Phillies at the July 31 trade deadline gave the Cardinals the most well-balanced and dangerous lineup in the Senior Circuit.
The 27-year-old Rolen started slow with his new club, one which he grew up rooting for, but rebounded to finish with a .278 average, 14 homers and 44 RBI in 55 games. In all, the three-time Gold Glove winner, who will likely add a fourth honor to his mantle following this season, hit .266 with 31 home runs and 110 runs batted in on the year.
"You don't want to try to fool anybody and say he's not an important player and he won't be missed," Cardinals skipper Tony LaRussa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Because that really disrespects him and he's an outstanding player. On the other side, the team has to really believe that's part of the game. It's part of the game, and it's an opportunity for somebody to step up."
That somebody could be a variety of players. When Rolen was forced to sit out Game 3 of the NLDS against the D'backs after suffering multiple sprains of his left shoulder in the Game 2 victory at Bank One Ballpark, Miguel Cairo stepped in and went 3-for-3 with a pair of runs scored and two RBI.
The Cardinals may also opt to move Albert Pujols to third -- his original spot on the diamond -- and play Eli Marrero in left field. However, Pujols does not appear comfortable at third and Marrero is 0-for-17 in his career during the postseason.
"I think Albert is more comfortable in left," explained LaRussa. "You want his bat to be a big factor. He doesn't need the extra responsibility. And Eli has been a little streaky. He's made huge improvements [this year] but right now, he's coming off a couple of balls."
While it is not clearly known how much time Rolen will miss, reports have indicated he will not be able to return until the World Series, if the Cards make it that far. As of now, the All-Star third sacker is experiencing great pain and is having trouble moving his left arm at the shoulder.
"To put it at seven days, 10 days or 14 days is a bit premature," said Rolen on Saturday. "Right now, I'm just waiting for it to stop hurting. I'm looking to make progress day by day. It's kind of hard to think about playing when it feels like this."
2 - Fernando Vina. The veteran second baseman batted just .270 during the regular season -- his lowest average since joining the Cardinals before the start of the 2000 campaign -- while his .333 on-base percentage was less than desirable for a leadoff hitter.
However, Vina turned his performance up a notch in the Division Series, going 9-for-15 (.600) and scoring three runs. He began the first two games at Bank One Ballpark by reaching base -- once via an error and once with a single -- and was right in the middle of two rallies in Game 3 that helped the Cardinals turn a two-run deficit into a 6-3 victory.
"You always want to be confident," explained the 33-year-old Vina, who owns a .357 lifetime batting average in the playoffs. "As a leadoff hitter the weight is on your shoulders to try to get something going for the ballclub."
Runs are always hard to come by in the playoffs, and this series should be no different as San Francisco finished second during the regular season in team ERA while St. Louis was fourth. For the Cards to be successful in this series, Vina needs to set the table for the likes of Pujols and Jim Edmonds.
3 - Continued success by the bullpen. Facing the likes of Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez and Russ Ortiz in this set will certainly make runs hard to come by. In fact, one can figure most of the games will be low scoring and, therefore, could come down to the performance of each team's bullpen.
In the Division Series versus Arizona, the Cardinals' relief pitchers turned in nine scoreless innings of five-hit ball to help limit the defending champs to a paltry .148 batting average.
With Dave Veres and Rick White setting up from the right side, and lefties Jeff Fassero and Steve Kline taking care of business on the other end, the Cardinals appear to be in good hands. Jason Isringhausen worked two perfect innings, earning a pair of saves, in the NLDS and seems to be recovered from a shoulder injury that plagued him near the end of the regular season.
For the Cardinals to advance to their first World Series since 1987, the 'pen will have to play a big role and pitch as well as it did against the D'backs.
