Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The conference championship round of the NFL playoffs has been extremely kind to the home teams over the last four years with seven of the eight reaching the Super Bowl.
Back in 2006, the Chicago Bears were 2.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints and coasted to a 39-14 victory. Meanwhile, in the later game, the Indianapolis Colts barely beat the New England Patriots, 38-34, but they still came out on top straight up and against the spread.
The following season, both betting choices failed to cover as the Green Bay Packers were stunned at home by the New York Giants, and New England defeated the San Diego Chargers by nine as a two-touchdown favorite.
The 2008 campaign saw the home teams bounce back with two SU and ATS victories, including one by an underdog. The Arizona Cardinals didn't need the 3.5 points as they took care of business against the Philadelphia Eagles with a seven-point victory. Over in the AFC, the hometown Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off their arch-rival Baltimore Ravens by nine as 3.5-point favorites.
And just last year, the two home squads prevailed once again with Indianapolis beating the New York Jets by 13 and New Orleans disposing of the Minnesota Vikings by a field goal.
This season, the AFC home team is favored by 3.5 points while the NFC home team is the recipient of 3.5 points. Going back even farther, the NFC home team is 5-1 SU over the last six years. That's important since the Bears are getting the points on Sunday.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS
Chicago and Green Bay split their two meetings this season with each squad winning at home. The first contest - all the way back in Week 3 - saw Chicago walk away with a three-point win on a Robbie Gould field goal with four seconds remaining. It was a game of field position as the Bears began just three of eight drives inside their 40-yard line. On the other side, the Packers began seven of their nine drives inside their 30.
Green Bay outgained the Bears by over 100 yards, but Chicago made up the difference on special teams with a 34-yard return average on punts and kickoffs, including Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown.
The Packers won the second contest in what was a must-win for them on the final day of the regular season. Chicago played its starters, but the NFC's No. 2 seed was already locked up. Overlooked in the game was the play of Matt Forte, who rushed for 91 yards. It was important for the Bears to run effectively on Green Bay because they failed to do so in the first outing.
In Sunday's showdown, the sixth seed is favored over the two seed, and on the road at that. However, this won't be an easy game for Green Bay, especially at Soldier Field with temperatures expected to be in the low 20s. This won't be anything like last Saturday's game at Atlanta, which was played inside a dome. Don't forget, the Packers scored just 21 points against a depleted Eagles defense in their last outdoor contest.
Take Chicago plus the points and the under.
NEW YORK JETS AT PITTSBURGH
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won and covered their last two conference championship games, while the Jets were abused in the second half in last year's matchup against Indianapolis.
These two teams met in Week 15 with New York winning in Pittsburgh, 22-17. The Steelers outgained the Jets by over 100 yards, but similar to the first contest between the Bears and Packers, special teams helped proved the difference. The Jets' Brad Smith returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown, although the game was tied at 17 heading into the fourth quarter.
The Jets come into Sunday's game on an emotional high after knocking off their hated rivals, the Patriots. Head coach Rex Ryan and his players talked a ton of smack all week and they backed up their words throughout the game. However, this matchup is a totally different animal. The Jets are playing a team that is as close to them in terms of style as any team in the league. Furthermore, it's certainly not a stretch to say the Steelers are a more-talented squad and playing at home gives coach Mike Tomlin's squad a big advantage.
It is true quarterback Mark Sanchez is 4-1 on the road in the playoffs the last two years, but the defense he will be facing on Sunday is much better than the ones he has conquered previously.
It also is true the Steelers are coming off a huge divisional game themselves, but that contest was played a day earlier, giving them an extra day of rest, which is a huge factor both emotionally and physically.
Even though the Ravens scored 24 points last Saturday, they gained only 126 total yards, and a large chunk of that came in the first quarter. Look for Pittsburgh to play another solid defensive game, with just enough scoring to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Take the Steelers minus the points and the under.
