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Chicago Cubs 2009 Preview


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Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - "Wait 'til next year."

It's a phrase the devoted fan base of the Chicago Cubs has been muttering for generations in regards to its beloved but star-crossed franchise, an expression as common as the team's seemingly never-ending reign of failure during the early fall months.

Last year was supposed to be THE year for the Cubs, and appeared so as well after the North Siders steamrolled the competition through the regular season to lead the National League with 97 wins. The playoffs were another matter, however, and Chicago's shocking sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers in October's NL Division Series took its place among the Billy Goat, Leon Durham and Steve Bartman in the club's dubious history.

While it's easy to be skeptical about the chances of a team that last won a world championship 101 years ago and last played in a World Series in 1945, it's just as hard to ignore the potential that the 2009 Cubs possess.

A fearsome lineup that easily led the NL in runs scored a year ago was made even more formidable with the offseason signing of gifted right fielder Milton Bradley. The starting pitching cast of Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden is as good a foursome as there is in the game right now, provided the oft-injured Harden can make it through the season pain free. In the fiery Lou Piniella, the Cubs have a skilled manager and a proven winner.

That impressive ensemble of talent has made Chicago an overwhelming favorite to capture a third straight NL Central title. Of course, winning games in the summer months hasn't been a problem for the Cubs, who have averaged 91 victories since Piniella took over for Dusty Baker following the 2006 season. However, the team has lost nine consecutive postseason contests, a dreadful streak that dates back to that memorable and epic collapse against the Florida Marlins in the 2003 NLCS.

The Cubs do have a few issues to address. With closer Kerry Wood leaving via free agency over the winter, general manager Jim Hendry filled the void by acquiring seasoned stopper Kevin Gregg in a trade with the Marlins. The right-hander compiled 61 saves in relative obscurity over the past two seasons, but also blew a league-high nine leads last year. Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukudome, the projected No. 2 hitter in the lineup, needs to rebound from a horrendous second half that put a damper on a promising first season in the majors.

Those problems seem to be fixable, however. Repairing the Cubs' psyche after back-to-back playoff flameouts will likely be Piniella's most important and challenging task.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2009 edition of the Chicago Cubs, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2008 FINISH (97-64) - First Place (NL Central)

KEY OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: RF Milton Bradley, RP Kevin Gregg, RP Aaron Heilman, IF Aaron Miles, RP Luis Vizcaino, OF Joey Gathright

KEY OFFSEASON SUBTRACTIONS: 2B Mark DeRosa, RP Kerry Wood, CF Jim Edmonds, SP Jason Marquis, RP Bob Howry, IF Ronny Cedeno, RP Michael Wuertz, C Henry Blanco, 1B Daryle Ward, RP Jon Lieber

PROJECTED LINEUP: Alfonso Soriano (LF), Kosuke Fukudome (CF), Derrek Lee (1B), Milton Bradley (RF), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Mike Fontenot (2B), Geovany Soto (C), Ryan Theriot (SS)

PROJECTED ROTATION: Carlos Zambrano (RHP), Ryan Dempster (RHP), Ted Lilly (LHP), Rich Harden (RHP), Sean Marshall (LHP)

PROJECTED CLOSER: Kevin Gregg (RHP)

MANAGER: Lou Piniella

INFIELD

Chicago did undergo one major change in the infield from last season, with Hendry shipping primary second baseman Mark DeRosa to Cleveland over the winter in exchange for prospects. The Cubs plan to use a platoon of Mike Fontenot (9 HR, 40 RBI), who hit .305 in a part-time role a year ago, and former Cardinal Aaron Miles (.317, 4 HR, 31 RBI), signed to a two-year deal in December, at the position, with the left-handed hitting Fontenot slated to receive the majority of at-bats.

The duo will play alongside scrappy shortstop Ryan Theriot (1 HR, 38 RBI, 22 SB), a winning player who Piniella often used near the top of the lineup last year due to his speed and ability to make consistent contact. The LSU product batted .307 with 85 runs scored in addition to supplying a steady glove.

First baseman Derrek Lee (.291, 20 HR, 90 RBI) knows how to field his position as well, having garnered three Gold Gloves over the past six seasons. Although the veteran slugger's power has declined since a 46-homer breakthrough in 2005, he remains a quality hitter with an excellent eye at the plate.

The Cubs' most consistent bat in the lineup belongs to third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.289, 27 HR, 111 RBI), who's quietly averaged 32 homers and 105 RBI in his five full seasons in Chicago. The two-time All-Star has also hit over .300 three times during that span and should provide excellent protection for Bradley, the team's expected cleanup hitter.

Chicago is also set up well behind the plate, where reigning NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto (.285, 23 HR, 86 RBI) should give the club a stable presence at the position for years to come. Not only was the 26-year-old an offensive force, but he impressed Piniella greatly with his maturity and handling of the pitching staff.

OUTFIELD

If there was an area of disappointment for the Cubs last season, the outfield would qualify as such. Dynamic left fielder Alfonso Soriano was limited to 109 games due to a calf strain and a broken hand, highly-touted prospect Felix Pie never panned out as the projected center fielder and Fukudome slumped greatly after starting out his major-league career with a bang. That prompted Hendry to sign the volatile but exceptionally gifted Bradley (.321, 22 HR, 77 RBI), who delivered a career season while playing in a hitter's paradise in Texas last year. Injuries and immaturity have often sidetracked the switch-hitter, but he's capable of putting up huge numbers when healthy and focused.

Soriano (.280, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB) has the reputation of being a quirky player as well, but the unconventional leadoff hitter still led Chicago in home runs last year despite missing significant time. The seven-time All-Star has four 30-30 seasons to his credit, although he no longer runs as much in the Cubs' power-heavy offense.

Fukudome (.257, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 12 SB) hit close to .300 over the first three months of his big-league debut, but batted an anemic .188 in August and September after wearing down. The Cubs believe he'll be better prepared to handle the grueling demands of a full season this time around. After playing primarily right field last year, the former Japanese League star will shift to center to accommodate Bradley.

STARTING ROTATION

The Cubs' starting pitchers led the NL with a 3.75 earned run average a year ago and could conceiveably better that number this season with a healthy Harden (10-2, 2.07, 181 K), who dominated the Senior Circuit after coming over in a trade with Oakland last July. The hard-throwing righty went 5-1 with a stellar 1.77 ERA in 12 regular-season starts with his new club, but the 148 innings he compiled last year were the native Canadian's most since 2004.

Dempster's (17-6, 2.96, 187 K) return to a starter's role after serving three straight years as the Cubs' closer turned out to be a smashing success as well. The 11-year veteran delivered a career high in wins, finished fourth among NL hurlers in ERA and was nearly unbeatable on the Wrigley Field mound, posting a 14-3 record in 20 home starts.

Lilly's (17-9, 4.09, 184 K) 17 victories in 2008 also established a new personal best, and the competitive lefty has proven to be well worth the four- year, $40-million deal he signed with the Cubs after the 2006 season. He did his best work during the September stretch drive, winning his final four starts and yielding just six runs over that span.

Zambrano (14-6, 3.91) had a mildly disappointing year compared to his usual lofty standards, but the regarded staff ace won at least 13 games for the sixth consecutive season and fired the first no-hitter by a Cubs pitcher since 1972 in September. The excitable Venezuelan missed some time last year with a shoulder strain, though, and still needs to show he can keep his emotions in check in pressure situations.

Towering left-hander Sean Marshall (3-5, 3.86, 1 SV), who spent most of last season as a reliever, beat out newcomer Aaron Heilman for the final rotation spot previously held by Jason Marquis, whom the Cubs traded to Colorado over the winter.

BULLPEN

Although Wood performed well as the team's closer last year, the Cubs viewed the injury-prone righty as too risky an investment and allowed him to sign a two-year, $20.5 million deal with Cleveland. Gregg (7-8, 3.41. 29 SV) comes with a cheaper price tag and is more durable than his predecessor, having pitched in at least 72 games over the past two years. Although he doesn't have the arsenal to blow away hitters, the ex-Marlin is a ground-ball pitcher with the mentality needed to finish out games.

Gregg will be aided by one of baseball's premier setup men in Carlos Marmol (2-4, 2.68, 7 SV). The flame-throwing Dominican was absolutely dominating in the eighth-inning role last year, limiting opposing hitters to a .135 average and racking up a whopping 114 strikeouts in just 87 1/3 of work. He entered the spring competing with Gregg to be the closer, but Piniella chose to keep the 26-year-old in his customary spot.

Heilman (3-8, 5.21, 3 SV), once a high-caliber reliever during his days with the Mets, gives Piniella another experienced arm for the late innings after being acquired in a trade with Seattle in January. The Cubs are hopeful that the former Notre Dame star can rebound from a subpar 2008 campaign in which he served up 10 homers in 76 innings.

Hendry also snared veteran Luis Vizcaino (1-2, 5.28), who held righties to a .170 average with Colorado a year ago, in the Marquis trade to work in middle relief. Holdover Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29), the lone portsider in the Chicago bullpen, returns as the lefty specialist.

Once-promising prospect Angel Guzman, who missed most of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and swingman Chad Gaudin (9-5, 4.40) appear to have the inside track for the two remaining bullpen slots, as both players are out of options. They've been pushed this spring by young righty David Patton, a Rule 5 selection out of the Colorado system who's made a nice impression on the coaching staff.

BENCH

An already strong reserve corps headlined by hard-nosed fourth outfielder Reed Johnson (.303, 6 HR, 50 RBI) got some additional depth with Hendry's astute pickup of Miles, an excellent contact hitter who can fill in at a number of positions. The switch-hitter should receive around 250-300 at-bats spelling Fontenot and Theriot.

Johnson, claimed off waivers from Toronto in the waning days of spring training last year, proved to be an excellent fit and stepped in ably when Soriano went down and Fukudome struggled. A lifetime .313 hitter against left-handed pitching, he'll likely be a lineup fixture when the opposition sends out a southpaw.

Joey Gathright (.254, 0 HR, 22 RBI), who stole 21 bases in part-time duty with the Royals last year, also figures in the outfield mix. Piniella has a familiarity with the speedster, as Gathright played under the Cubs' skipper during "Sweet Lou's" previous stop in Tampa Bay.

The final two bench spots appear to belong to first baseman Micah Hoffpauir (.342, 2 HR, 8 RBI) and switch-hitting catcher Koyie Hill, who beat out journeyman Paul Bako in the spring to win a job as Soto's backup. Hoffpauir offers an intriguing lefty bat and hit a robust .362 with 25 homers at Triple- A Iowa last season, while also showing well in a September callup to the majors.

OUTLOOK

While Chicago's postseason flameouts the past two years are certainly cause for concern, the Cubs' outstanding blend of power, experience and top-shelf starting pitching make them the clear-cut team to beat in the NL Central, if not the entire National League. The long-suffering franchise's chances of ending its century-long championship drought may boil down to how the club -- and the revamped bullpen in particular -- is able to handle the October pressure.

March 31, 2009, at 04:24 PM ET
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Phillies release Jenkins
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