(My Sportsbook) - When the
Cincinnati Bengals travel to meet the
Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon, two of the NFL's best offenses figure to put on a show for the paying customers at Arrowhead Stadium. That entertainment value would certainly have kept everyone happy if the game meant nothing in terms of playoff significance, but the Chiefs are still alive for a wild card berth -- barely.
Thanks to an unlikely source, the Denver Broncos, Kansas City can still claim the last playoff spot in the AFC. The Broncos beat San Diego on Saturday, meaning the Chiefs need a victory against the Bengals, coupled with a Detroit Lions win at Pittsburgh, to reach the postseason.
In addition, the Chiefs appear to be playing their final regular-season game under head coach Dick Vermeil, who has reportedly told his players that he will retire at the conclusion of the 2005 season.
Kansas City enters into the Week 17 playoff discussion thanks in part to a 20-7 home win over the Chargers last Saturday, a victory that eliminated San Diego from playoff contention.
Cincinnati is not fighting for its postseason life heading into Sunday, but does have a few things to accomplish against the Chiefs. A win for the Bengals would lock up the No. 3 seed in the playoffs for Marvin Lewis' club, and would keep Cincinnati from meeting mighty Indianapolis until the AFC Championship, if at all. A victory this week would also help erase the bitter taste of last Saturday's 37-27 home upset at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, a setback that took Lewis and company out of the running for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC portion of the playoffs.
SERIES HISTORY
Kansas City owns a 11-10 advantage in its all-time series against Cincinnati, but dropped a memorable 24-19 road decision when the teams last met, in 2003. The Chiefs came into that game 9-0, and were facing a Bengals club that was just 4-5. The Chiefs were 17-15 winners when the teams last matched up in Kansas City, in 1993. Cincinnati's last road win in the series came in 1989, when they took a 21-17 decision at Arrowhead Stadium.
Vermeil is 1-3 in his career against Cincinnati, with the only win coming for his Rams during the 1999 season. The Bengals' Lewis is 1-0 in his career versus both Vermeil and the Chiefs.
BENGALS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE
It is unclear how much, if at all, Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (3782 passing yards, 32 TD, 12 INT) will play against the Chiefs. Palmer injured his groin in last week's loss to the Bills, and with Cincinnati already having clinched the AFC North title, it is unclear whether the team would want to risk his health by playing him in a game with limited meaning. If Palmer can't go, the ball will be in the hands of Jon Kitna, who completed two pass attempts for 17 yards against Buffalo. Before exiting, Palmer was 25-of-36 for 266 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. No. 1 wideout Chad Johnson (93 receptions, 9 TD) led the way with nine catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in the defeat, and trusty No. 2 T.J. Houshmandzadeh (75 receptions, 7 TD) contributed seven receptions for 70 yards to the proceedings. Third receiver Chris Henry (31 receptions, 6 TD) made just one catch on the day, but it went for a 27-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Tight end Matt Schobel (15 receptions, 1 TD) had an active afternoon with two catches for 30 yards. The Bengal line surrendered two sacks last Saturday, and has now allowed a mere 20 on the year. Cincinnati is fifth in NFL passing offense (246.4 yards per game).
Whoever plays quarterback for the Bengals will have to be licking their chops when looking at a Kansas City defense that ranks just 31st in NFL passing defense (237 yards per game), ahead of only the woeful 49ers in that category. That said, the Chiefs did a credible job against Drew Brees and the San Diego passing game last week, allowing the aerial attack to amass just 161 yards through the air. Cornerback Patrick Surtain (53 tackles, 3 INT) recorded his third interception of the year in the win, also pacing the team with seven tackles on the day. Elsewhere in the secondary, strong safety Sammy Knight (86 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) had six stops for Vermeil's team. The Kansas City pass rush has struggled for most of the season, with only end Jared Allen (50 tackles, 11 sacks) able to make much of a difference in that regard. Allen had the only sack of Brees last Saturday, just the team's 28th of the year.
Also seeing a possible early exit on Sunday will be Bengals running back Rudi Johnson (1440 rushing yards, 12 TD, 22 receptions), who is listed as probable with a knee injury but might have to play a bit due to the depleted state of the Bengals' backfield at the moment. No. 2 running back Chris Perry (269 rushing yards, 48 receptions, 2 TD) has missed the team's last two games with an ankle injury, and is considered doubtful for Sunday. That means fullback Jeremi Johnson (14 rushing yards, 12 receptions, 3 TD) could see more carries than usual. Rudi Johnson carried 18 times for 88 yards in the Buffalo loss, and Jeremi Johnson contributed two catches for six yards out of the backfield. Cincinnati is 10th in the league in rushing offense (124.9 yards per game) heading into Week 17.
The Chiefs are ninth in the NFL against the run (102.2 yards per game), and come off a week in which they kept the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson firmly in check for four quarters. Tomlinson was held to 49 yards on 15 carries in the game, and could manage just 18 yards on three receptions in the contest. Starting linebackers Kawika Mitchell (98 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT), Derrick Johnson (89 tackle, 2 sacks), and Kendrell Bell (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks) each recorded five tackles in the win. Mitchell and Johnson come into Week 17 ranked 1-2 on the Chiefs in tackles. Kansas City's best run-stopper on the interior line this season has been tackle John Browning (31 tackles, 2 sacks), but Browning was limited to one stop against the Chargers.
CHIEFS OFFENSE VS. BENGALS DEFENSE
All eyes in Kansas City this week will be cast upon Chiefs running back Larry Johnson (1549 rushing yards, 31 receptions, 18 TD), who is attempting to become just the sixth back in NFL history to rush for 100 or more yards in nine consecutive games. The Lions' Barry Sanders pulled the feat in 14 straight games in 1997, the Raiders' Marcus Allen had 11 straight in 1985-86, and the Bears' Walter Payton (1985), Saints' Deuce McAllister (2003) and Jaguars' Fred Taylor (2000) each reeled off nine consecutive 100-yard outings. Johnson took over the AFC rushing lead in last week's win over the Chargers, carrying 32 times for 131 yards and a touchdown in sloppy conditions. Johnson also caught four passes for another 48 yards and a TD out of the backfield. The Penn State product needs 67 yards this week to break the franchise record for single-season rushing yards, set by Priest Holmes with 1,615 in 2001. Kansas City currently ranks fourth in the league in rushing offense (145.3 yards per game).
Johnson should be able to find running room while working against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in NFL rushing defense (109.9 yards per game) and has allowed four 100-yard rushers this season. The Bengals did a nice job against the Bills' Willis McGahee last week, however, holding the former Miami (FL) standout to just 66 yards on 23 carries for the day. Linebackers Landon Johnson (82 tackles) and Odell Thurman (92 tackles, 5 INT, 1.5 sacks) had eight tackles each in the defeat, and fellow LB Brian Simmons (79 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT) posted six stops with a sack and a forced fumble in the contest. John Thornton (40 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) was the team's most active interior linemen in the defeat, notching five tackles and his second sack of the season.
Looking to complement Larry Johnson and the rushing game will be quarterback Trent Green (3670 passing yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) and the Kansas City aerial attack. Green was an efficient 19-of-35 for 207 yards with two touchdowns in last week's win over the Chargers, connecting with both Johnson and wideout Samie Parker (35 receptions, 3 TD) for scoring strikes. Parker had four catches for a team-high-tying 58 yards in the triumph. Tight end Tony Gonzales (73 receptions, 2 TD) was involved as always, hauling in five passes for 58 yards in a winning effort. No. 1 receiver Eddie Kennison (61 receptions, 5 TD) was quiet, logging just two receptions for 19 yards, and will this week need 49 receiving yards to surpass the 1,000-yard mark for a second straight season. Green was sacked twice against San Diego, but the trusty Kansas City line has allowed just 30 sacks through its first 15 games. The Chiefs are seventh in the league in passing offense (231.7 yards per game).
The Bengals are just 23rd in the league in passing defense (215.6 yards per game) at present, and come off a week in which they allowed the Bills' Kelly Holcomb to explode for a 308-yard passing performance. Complicating matters for the Cincinnati secondary on Sunday is the questionable status of cornerback Deltha O'Neal (65 tackles, 10 INT), the NFL's interception leader who is listed as questionable with a knee injury. If O'Neal can't go, Keiwan Ratliff (41 tackles, 3 INT) will likely get the start opposite Tory James (55 tackles, 5 INT). The only member of the playmaking Bengals' secondary to notch an interception last week was safety Kevin Kaesviharn (83 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who tallied the team's NFL-leading 31st pick of the year. The Cincinnati pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with just 26 sacks, but dropped Holcomb three times last Saturday. End Justin Smith (61 tackles, 6 sacks) recorded his team-leading sixth sack of the year in the game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Since this game now has significance for the Chiefs, they'll come out with a purpose. However, the contest is still meaningful for the Bengals, since Cincinnati will be hungry to go into the postseason on a strong note and give itself a chance at a better place in the playoff bracket. The Chiefs are generally very tough at home, particularly at this stage of the year, but the circumstances are such that a Bengals victory at Arrowhead looks like a very strong possibility.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Bengals 35, Chiefs 24